UN Climate Party Is Over
THE FATE OF THE WORLD is being decided right now. But you might have missed it. In South Africa the 'parties' have gathered for the 17th United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It's a follow up from its more celebrated prequel, Copenhagen in 2009.
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Copenhagen was very popular. At Copenhagen, something like 30,000 world leaders, journalists, delegates, lobbyists and assorted onlookers gathered, emitting considerable amounts of carbon dioxide into the air along the way, to thrash out a global agreement to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. Expectations were high.
While those in the know defend that some progress was made, most people pronounced Copenhagen a failure. No agreement was signed, although world leaders vaguely agreed to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius.
A year later in Mexico, a much smaller carnival worked out some logistics on how this target could be achieved, but no legally binding agreement was reached.
And now, at the end of 2011, the climate negotiators have gathered again to doggedly pursue their ambition of a global agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions and the climate change they result in.
And this year, only the committed few are watching.
There are two main reasons for this. The first is that most of the action happens in the last day. So stay tuned: on Friday 9th we may see a flurry of news.
The second is that the world seems to have lost that lovin' feelin' for the UNFCCC. Last year, I blogged that the Mexican meeting may become memorable as the year that the death knell tolled for UN climate agreements.
This year, there seems to be little to prove that the process has undergone any kind of revival. Of the news reports out at this early stage, most are filled with gloomy prognostications of the demise of the UN talks.
Like a wilted social butterfly, the UNFCCC's dress is torn and it's broken a heel. But it grimly remains on the dancefloor until they switch the lights on.
The UNFCCC was formed in 1992 in response to scientific predictions of problematic climate consequences from too many greenhouse gases being released to the atmosphere. Back then, as today, scientists warned that greenhouse gases trap heat from the sun, and with too much of them the world could experience an upset in traditional weather patterns causing problems for humans, plants and animals.
At the 1997 meeting, held in Kyoto, Japan, a treaty was drawn up and 84 countries signed on. It promised to limit the more developed countries' greenhouse gas emissions to 5 per cent below 1990 levels by 2012. Developing countries, of which China was one, were exempt from it. If countries failed to hit their target, they were expected to reduce their emissions even more in the second period of Kyoto, which would commence after 2012.
Since 1997, the signatories to the Kyoto Protocol have been missing their targets, or, in the case of the US, failing even to formalise their signature on the Protocol.
As 2012 approached, and with it the end of the Kyoto Protocol, some nations - Canada in particular - realised they were facing penalties if Kyoto II were brokered.
In the meantime, China, Brazil, India and South Africa grew. China's greenhouse gas emissions are now higher than the USA, making it the world's biggest emitter.
Those countries saddled with Kyoto obligations complained that these countries and others besides should be included in Kyoto II. As I noted last year, trying to get the whole world to agree on something is a challenge that is perhaps a little too large.
With Kyoto officially wrapping up around the time of next year's summit in Qatar, Durban is the last chance for a successor to Kyoto to be determined.
Even without Kyoto, the UNFCCC will continue to hammer out international agreements on climate change. But given the lack-lustre performance of the one and only international, legally binding climate agreement, and with commitment to climate change action waning from the US, the chances of another internationally agreeable treaty are looking slim.
The UNFCCC may have to change out of its party frock and don some overalls. Its future seems destined to be one of incremental advancement. Gone are its days as the celebrity diplomatic negotiation.
We can look forward to the UN driving international legal infrastructure for the prevention of land-clearing; providing a uniform method for countries reporting their greenhouse gas emissions; and providing finance to developing countries to grow along a cleaner path than the one we took.
Durban will be judged a success if any one of these far humbler ambitions are realised.
Very important article. A lot more needs to be done. China I dont think will anyway be ready to cut down just like most of the developed nations. Alot more needs to be done.
Hope that the laws change ta protect the environment forgenerations.rations.
I'm impressed to here everyone is finally coming together. Though it won't be put into practise until 2020. Who knows what will happen when in 2015 they have to agree on what is to be done. Fingers crossed it all works out. Though disappointed it will take so many years for them to pull their finger out and get into gear.
