The aurora and Tasmania
The global distribution of auroral activity is an oval around the magnetic poles in both hemispheres. As the level of magnetic disturbance of the Earth's magnetic field increases, the oval of auroral activity expands equatorward. At times it expands over Tasmania. Because Tasmania is located equator-ward of the general location of the auroral oval, auroral displays in Tasmania are generally seen in the southern sky. The most dramatic displays will most likely be observed when the aurora is overhead at around midnight. The earlier in the evening an auroral display is seen in the southern sky, the more likely it is that the display will be more spectacular and more overhead (or even to the north) at around midnight. The chance of observing an aurora in Tasmania, on a clear night, averages out at around 1 to 2 per cent. The chance of observing aurora in Tasmania is strongly correlated with the sunspot cycle. Auroral activity over Tasmania peaks near the peak of the sunspot cycle and for the following couple of years. Aurora in the skies over Tasmania peaked around 2002 and will next peak around 2013. Due to its proximity to the general location of the auroral oval, Tasmania is the Australian state with the greatest probability of observing auroral displays. Auroral displays are more common near the equinoxes, but this does not preclude the occurrence of aurora at other times.